Identifying priority areas for reducing species vulnerability to climate change
Article first published online: 21 OCT 2011
© 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd
Diversity and Distributions
Volume 18, Issue 1, pages 60–72, January 2012
How to Cite
Crossman, N. D., Bryan, B. A. and Summers, D. M. (2012), Identifying priority areas for reducing species vulnerability to climate change. Diversity and Distributions, 18: 60–72. doi: 10.1111/j.1472-4642.2011.00851.x
- Issue published online: 6 DEC 2011
- Article first published online: 21 OCT 2011
- Climate adaptation;
- conservation planning;
- ecological restoration;
- ensemble forecast;
- species distribution modelling
Aim The dimensions of species vulnerability to climate change are complex, and this impedes efforts to provide clear advice for conservation planning. In this study, we used a formal framework to assess species vulnerability to climate change quantifying exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity and then used this information to target areas for reducing vulnerability at a regional scale.
Location The 6500-km2 Mount Lofty Ranges region in South Australia.
Methods We quantified the vulnerability of 171 plant species in a fragmented yet biologically important agro-ecological landscape, typical of many temperate zones globally. We specified exposure, using three climate change scenarios; sensitivity, as the adverse impact of climate change on species’ spatial distribution; and adaptive capacity, as the ability of species to migrate calculated using dispersal kernels. Priority areas for reducing vulnerability were then identified by incorporating these various components into a single priority index.
Results Climate change had a variable impact on species distributions. Those species whose range decreased or shifted geographically were attributed higher sensitivity than those species that increased geographic range or remained unchanged. The ability to adapt to range changes in response to shifting climates varies both spatially and between species. Areas of highest priority for reducing vulnerability were found at higher altitudes and lower latitudes with increasing severity of climate change.
Main conclusions Our study demonstrates the use of a single spatially explicit index that identifies areas in the landscape for targeting specific conservation and restoration actions to reduce species vulnerability to climate change. Our index can be transferred to other regions around the world in which climate change poses an increasing threat to native species.