The authors are grateful to Dan Farhat, Liam Lenten, two anonymous referees and participants at the Australian Conference of Economists ACE10, Sydney (September 2010), for helpful comments and suggestions on earlier drafts. They also thank Dan Farhat for advice on MATLAB coding.
Playoff Uncertainty, Match Uncertainty and Attendance at Australian National Rugby League Matches*
Article first published online: 29 NOV 2011
© 2011 The Economic Society of Australia
Volume 88, Issue 281, pages 262–277, June 2012
How to Cite
KING, N., OWEN, P. D. and AUDAS, R. (2012), Playoff Uncertainty, Match Uncertainty and Attendance at Australian National Rugby League Matches. Economic Record, 88: 262–277. doi: 10.1111/j.1475-4932.2011.00778.x
- Issue published online: 7 JUN 2012
- Article first published online: 29 NOV 2011
This article develops a new simulation-based measure of playoff uncertainty and investigates its contribution to modelling match attendance compared with other variants of playoff uncertainty in the existing literature. A model of match attendance incorporating match uncertainty, playoff uncertainty, past home team performance and other relevant control variables is fitted to Australian National Rugby League data for seasons 2004–2008. The probability of making the playoffs and home team success are more important determinants of match attendance than match uncertainty. Alternative measures of playoff uncertainty based on points behind the leader, although more ad hoc, also appear able to capture broadly similar effects on attendance to the playoff probabilities.