Objective. To develop an approach to the primary prevention of genocide, based on established public health-based violence prevention methods derived from a variety of high-risk settings.
Data Sources. (1) Peer-reviewed literature in the fields of public health, violence/injury prevention, medicine, economics, sociology, psychology, history, and genocide studies, (2) demographic and health data bases made available by governments and international organizations, (3) reports on recent episodes of genocide published by international and nongovernmental organizations, (4) newspaper and journalistic accounts of recent and past genocides, (5) archival testimonies of genocide victims and perpetrators, and (6) court transcripts of international genocide prosecutions.
Study Design. The research was conducted as a medical-historical policy analysis synthesizing data within the following framework: (1) Assessment of current violence and injury prevention models for suitability in the prevention of extreme, population-wide violence, (2) analysis of morbidity and mortality data to quantify the impact of genocide on the health of populations, (3) making an inventory of the known societal risk factors for genocidal violence, (4) identification of the theorized, modifiable attitudinal risk factors for genocidal behavior within a population health model, and (5) assessment of existing projects targeting primary violence and injury prevention in high risk jurisdictions, for future adaptation within a structured, public health approach.
Principal Findings. Mortality rates due to genocidal violence are far in excess of other public health emergencies including malaria and HIV/AIDS. The immediate and long-range health consequences of genocide include the sequelae of infectious diseases, organ system failure, and psychiatric disorders, conferring an increased burden of disease on affected populations for multiple subsequent generations. The impact of genocide on local health economies is catastrophic, and the opportunity costs of diverting scarce global health dollars toward ameliorating genocide related outcomes are substantial. Structural risk factors for genocide within societies include: totalitarian government, exclusionary ideologies, armed conflict, economic hardship, and inaction of bystander nations. Proposed psychological risk factors for genocidal behavior include: moral exclusion, authority orientation, action in self-interest, desensitization, and compartmentalized thinking. Violence and injury prevention models, incorporating what is currently known about the societal and behavioral risk factors for genocide in high-risk populations, may be modified to address the primary prevention of catastrophic violence on a population-wide scale. A number of existent global peace building initiatives may serve as models for the design of future prevention initiatives in high-risk, pre-genocide jurisdictions.
Conclusions. Our analysis suggests that genocide is one of the most pressing threats to the health of populations in the twenty-first century. Recent advances in the public health discipline of violence prevention provide a blueprint for approaches to primary genocide prevention based on epidemiological methods.