Lessons from the history of technological change for clean energy scenarios and policies


Charlie Wilson is at the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK. E-mail: charliewilson.academic@gmail.com
Arnulf Grubler is with the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, and Yale University, School of Forestry, New Haven, CT, USA. E-mail: gruebler@iiasa.ac.at


This paper provides a synthesis of current knowledge on the patterns, drivers, and characteristics of historical energy technology transitions. This historical evidence is then compared to the treatment of energy system dynamics in the scenario analysis on climate mitigation. The paper concludes with a discussion of generic implications for clean energy and technology innovation policy.