Agricultural Exports and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: A Panel Cointegration Approach

Authors

  • Ana I. Sanjuán-López,

  • P. J. Dawson

    Search for more papers by this author
    • Ana Sanjuán-López is a Visiting Fellow in the School of Agriculture, Food and Rural Development, Newcastle University, Newcastle NE1 7RU, UK, and a Research Fellow in the Centre of Agrofood Research and Technology of Aragon (CITA), Zaragoza, Spain. E-mail: aisanjuan@aragon.es for correspondence. Phil Dawson is a Reader in the School of Agriculture, Food and Rural Development, Newcastle University, Newcastle NE1 7RU, UK. E-mail: p.j.dawson@ncl.ac.uk. Ana Sanjuán-López gratefully acknowledges financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Education, within the programme ‘Fomento de movilidad de profesores e investigadores’. We are grateful to two referees and an External Editor for comments on a previous draft.


Abstract

This paper quantifies the contribution of agricultural exports to economic growth in developing countries. We estimate the relationship between GDP and agricultural and non-agricultural exports for 42 countries using panel cointegration methods. Results show that a long-run relationship exists, the agricultural export elasticity of GDP is 0.07 whereas that of non-agricultural exports is 0.13, and total exports Granger-cause GDP, which supports the export-led growth hypothesis. Structural differences exist in the relationship by broad income group. Balanced export-promotion polices are implied for the poorest countries, but, for those with higher incomes, higher economic growth is achieved from non-agricultural exports.

Ancillary