• 1
    Briggs AH. Handling uncertainty in cost-effectiveness models. Pharmacoeconomics 2000;17:479500.
  • 2
    Briggs A. Probabilistic analysis of cost-effectiveness models: statistical representation of parameter uncertainty. Value Health 2005;8:12.
  • 3
    Van Hout BA, Al MJ, Gordon GS, Rutten FFH. Costs, effects and c/e-ratio's alongside a clinical trial. Health Econ 1994;3:30919.
  • 4
    Fenwick E, Claxton K, Sculpher M. Representing uncertainty: the role of cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. Health Econ 2001;10:77987.
  • 5
    Claxton K. The irrelevance of inference: a decision-making approach to the stochastic evaluation of health care technologies. J Health Econ 1999;18:34164.
  • 6
    Claxton K, Sculpher M, Drummond M. A rational framework for decision making by the National Institute for Clinical Excellence (NICE). Lancet 2002; 360:71115.
  • 7
    Ades AE, Lu G, Claxton K. Expected value of sample information calculations in medical decision modeling. Med Decis Making 2004;24:20727.
  • 8
    Tappenden P, Chilcott JB, Eggington S, et al. Methods for expected value of information analysis in complex health economic models: developments on the health economics of interferon-beta and glatiramer acetate for multiple sclerosis. Health Technol Assess 2004;8: iii, 1–78.
  • 9
    Claxton K, Ginnelly L, Sculpher M, et al. A pilot study on the use of decision theory and value of information analysis as part of the NHS Health Technology Assessment programme. Health Technol Assess 2004;8:1103, iii.
  • 10
    Stinnett AA, Mullahy J. Net health benefits: a new framework for the analysis of uncertainty in cost-effectiveness analysis. Med Decis Making 1998;18(2 Suppl.):S6880.
  • 11
    Hoch JS, Briggs AH, Willan AR. Something old, something new, something borrowed, something blue: a framework for the marriage of health econometrics and cost-effectiveness analysis. Health Econ 2002;11: 41530.
  • 12
    National Institute for Clinical Excellence. Guide to the Methods of Technology Appraisal. London: NICE, 2004.
  • 13
    Howard RA, Matheson JE, North DW. The decision to seed hurricanes. Science 1972;176:1191202.
  • 14
    Thompson K, Evans J. The value of improved national exposure information for perchloroethylene (Perc): a case study for dry cleaners. Risk Anal 1997;17:25371.
  • 15
    Yokota F, Gray G, Hammitt JK, Thompson KM. Tiered chemical testing: a value of information approach. Risk Anal 2004;24:162539.
  • 16
    Hammitt JK, Cave JAK. Research planning for food safety. A value-of-information approach. The RAND publication series R-3946-ASPE/NCTR,
  • 17
    Felli JC, Hazen GB. Sensitivity analysis and the expected value of perfect information. Med Decis Making 1998;18:95109.
  • 18
    Chilcott J, Brennan A, Booth A, et al. The role of modelling in prioritising and planning clinical trials. Health Technol Assess 2003;7:iii, 1–125.
  • 19
    Groot Koerkamp B, Myriam Hunink MG, Stijnen T, Weinstein MC. Identifying key parameters in cost-effectiveness analysis using value of information: a comparison of methods. Health Econ 2006;15:38392.
  • 20
    Brennan A, Kharroubi S, O'Hagan A, Chilcott J. Calculating partial expected value of perfect information via Monte Carlo sampling algorithms. Med Decis Making 2007;27:44870.
  • 21
    Claxton K, Neumann PJ, Araki S, Weinstein MC. Bayesian value-of-information analysis. An application to a policy model of Alzheimer's disease. Int J Technol Assess Health Care 2001;17:3855.
  • 22
    Fenwick E, Palmer S, Claxton K, et al. An iterative Bayesian approach to health technology assessment: application to a policy of preoperative optimization for patients undergoing major elective surgery. Med Decis Making 2006;26:48096.
  • 23
    Speight PM, Palmer S, Moles DR, et al. The cost-effectiveness of screening for oral cancer in primary care. Health Technol Assess 2006;10:1144, iii–iv.
  • 24
    Castelnuovo E, Thompson-Coon J, Pitt M, et al. The cost-effectiveness of testing for hepatitis C in former injecting drug users. Health Technol Assess 2006; 10:iiiiv, ix–xii, 1–93.
  • 25
    Oostenbrink JB, Rutten-van Molken MP, Monz BU, FitzGerald JM. Probabilistic Markov model to assess the cost-effectiveness of bronchodilator therapy in COPD patients in different countries. Value Health 2005;8:3246.
  • 26
    Rutten-van Molken MP, Oostenbrink JB, Miravitlles M, Monz BU. Modelling the 5-year cost effectiveness of tiotropium, salmeterol and ipratropium for the treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Spain. Eur J Health Econ 2007;8:12335.
  • 27
    GOLD. Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease. Global Strategy for Diagnosis, Management, and Prevention of COPD. Bathesda, MD: National Institutes of Health, National Hearth, Lung and Blood Institute. Available from:[Accessed July 6, 2006.
  • 28
    Briggs AH, Ades AE, Price MJ. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis for decision trees with multiple branches: use of the Dirichlet distribution in a Bayesian framework. Med Decis Making 2003;23:34150.
  • 29
    Price MJ, Briggs AH. Development of an economic model to assess the cost effectiveness of asthma management strategies. Pharmacoeconomics 2002;20: 18394.
  • 30
    Hoogendoorn M, Rutten-van Mölken MPMH, Hoogenveen RT, et al. A dynamic population model of disease progression in COPD. Eur Respir J 2005;26:22333.
  • 31
    Hoogendoorn M, Feenstra TL, Schermer TR, et al. Severity distribution of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in Dutch general practice. Respir Med 2006;100:836.
  • 32
    Vincken W, Van Noord JA, Greefhorst AP, et al. Improved health outcomes in patients with COPD during 1 year's treatment with tiotropium. Eur Respir J 2002;19:20916.
  • 33
    Casaburi R, Mahler DA, Jones PW, et al. A long-term evaluation of once-daily inhaled tiotropium in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Eur Respir J 2002; 19:21724.
  • 34
    Brusasco V, Hodder R, Miravitlles M, et al. Health outcomes following treatment for six months with once daily tiotropium compared with twice daily salmeterol in patients with COPD. Thorax 2003; 58:399404.
  • 35
    Feenstra TL, Van Genugten ML, Hoogenveen RT, et al. The impact of aging and smoking on the future burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a model analysis in the Netherlands. Am J Respir Crit Care Med 2001;164:5906.
  • 36
    Borg S, Ericsson A, Wedzicha JA, et al. A computer simulation model of the natural history and economic impact of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Value Health 2004;7:15367.
  • 37
    Paterson C, Langan CE, McKaig GA, et al. Assessing patient outcomes in acute exacerbations of chronic bronchitis: the measure your medical outcome profile (MYMOP), medical outcomes study 6-item general health survey (MOS-6A) and EuroQol (EQ-5D). Qual Life Res 2000;9:5217.
  • 38
    Spencer S, Jones PW. Time course of recovery of health status following an infective exacerbation of chronic bronchitis. Thorax 2003;58:58993.
  • 39
    College voor zorgverzekeringen. Richtlijnen voor farmaco-econonomisch onderzoek, evaluatie en actualisatie. Diemen: College voor Zorgverzekeringen, 2005.
  • 40
    Jansson SA, Andersson F, Borg S, et al. Costs of COPD in Sweden according to disease severity. Chest 2002;122:19942002.
  • 41
    Rutten-van Mölken MP, Oostenbrink JB, Tashkin DP, et al. Does quality of life of COPD patients as measured by the generic EuroQol five-dimension questionnaire differentiate between COPD severity stages? Chest 2006;130:111728.
  • 42
    Dolan P. Modeling valuations for the EuroQol health states. Med Care 1997;35:1095108.
  • 43
    Claxton K. Value of information analysis. In: SculpherM, BriggsAH, ClaxtonK, eds. Decision Modelling for Health Economic Evaluation. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2006.
  • 44
    CBO. Behandeling en preventie van coronaire hartziekten door verlaging van de plasmacholesterolconcentratie. Consensus Cholesterol tweede herziening (Treatment and prevention of coronary heart disease using cholesterol lowering therapy. Consensus Cholesterol. Second revision [in Dutch]). Utrecht: Dutch Institute for Healthcare CBO, 1998.
  • 45
    CBO. Osteoporose. Tweede Herziening Richtlijn (Osteoporosis. Second revision clinical guideline [in Dutch]). Utrecht: Dutch Institute for Healthcare CBO, 2002.
  • 46
    Stolk EA, Van Donselaar G, Brouwer WB, Busschbach JJ. Reconciliation of economic concerns and health policy: illustration of an equity adjustment procedure using proportional shortfall. Pharmacoeconomics 2004;22:1097107.
  • 47
    Decramer M, Celli BR, Tashkin DP, et al. Clinical trial design considerations in assessing long-term functional impacts of tiotropium in COPD: the Uplift trial. J Chron Obstruct Pulm Dis 2004;1:30312.
  • 48
    Groot Koerkamp B, Hunink MG, Stijnen T, et al. Limitations of acceptability curves for presenting uncertainty in cost-effectiveness analysis. Med Decis Making 2007;27:10111.
  • 49
    Fenwick E, Briggs A. Cost-effectiveness acceptability curves in the dock: case not proven? Med Decis Making 2007;27:935.
  • 50
    Franciosi LG, Page CP, Celli BR, et al. Markers of disease severity in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Pulm Pharmacol Ther 2006;19:18999.