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Keywords:

  • computer simulation;
  • cost–benefit analysis;
  • economics;
  • human disease outbreaks;
  • influenza;
  • pharmaceutical models;
  • theoretical

ABSTRACT

Objectives:  To project the potential economic impact of pandemic influenza mitigation strategies from a societal perspective in the United States.

Methods:  We use a stochastic agent-based model to simulate pandemic influenza in the community. We compare 17 strategies: targeted antiviral prophylaxis (TAP) alone and in combination with school closure as well as prevaccination.

Results:  In the absence of intervention, we predict a 50% attack rate with an economic impact of $187 per capita as loss to society. Full TAP (FTAP) is the most effective single strategy, reducing number of cases by 54% at the lowest cost to society ($127 per capita). Prevaccination reduces number of cases by 48% and is the second least costly alternative ($140 per capita). Adding school closure to FTAP or prevaccination further improves health outcomes but increases total cost to society by approximately $2700 per capita.

Conclusion:  FTAP is an effective and cost-saving measure for mitigating pandemic influenza.