We dedicate this paper to the memory of our friend and colleague, Dr. Jawaid Rasul, who passed away shortly after the completion of this work.
Forecasting the Effect of the Amethyst Initiative on College Drinking
Article first published online: 20 MAR 2012
Copyright © 2012 by the Research Society on Alcoholism
Alcoholism: Clinical and Experimental Research
Volume 36, Issue 9, pages 1608–1613, September 2012
How to Cite
Fitzpatrick, B. G., Scribner, R., Ackleh, A. S., Rasul, J., Jacquez, G., Simonsen, N. and Rommel, R. (2012), Forecasting the Effect of the Amethyst Initiative on College Drinking. Alcoholism: Clinical and Experimental Research, 36: 1608–1613. doi: 10.1111/j.1530-0277.2012.01765.x
- Issue published online: 6 SEP 2012
- Article first published online: 20 MAR 2012
- Manuscript Accepted: 4 JAN 2012
- Manuscript Received: 24 AUG 2011
- National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism. Grant Number: RO1 AA015573
- Amethyst Initiative;
- Heavy Episodic Drinking;
A number of college presidents have endorsed the Amethyst Initiative, a call to consider lowering the minimum legal drinking age (MLDA). Our objective is to forecast the effect of the Amethyst Initiative on college drinking.
A system model of college drinking simulates MLDA changes through (i) a decrease in heavy episodic drinking (HED) because of the lower likelihood of students drinking in unsupervised settings where they model irresponsible drinking (misperception), and (ii) an increase in overall drinking among currently underage students because of increased social availability of alcohol (wetness).
For the proportion of HEDs on campus, effects of large decreases in misperception of responsible drinking behavior were more than offset by modest increases in wetness.
For the effect of lowering the MLDA, it appears that increases in social availability of alcohol have a stronger impact on drinking behavior than decreases in misperceptions.