The work was supported by Grants NO1-HC-25195 and 5R01-NS-17950 from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute and Grants 1 K08 AG022785 (Dr. Terry) and K24-HL-04334 (Dr. Vasan) from the National Institute on Aging.
Cardiovascular Risk Factors Predictive for Survival and Morbidity-Free Survival in the Oldest-Old Framingham Heart Study Participants
Article first published online: 23 SEP 2005
Journal of the American Geriatrics Society
Volume 53, Issue 11, pages 1944–1950, November 2005
How to Cite
Terry, D. F., Pencina, M. J., Vasan, R. S., Murabito, J. M., Wolf, P. A., Hayes, M. K., Levy, D., D'Agostino, R. B. and Benjamin, E. J. (2005), Cardiovascular Risk Factors Predictive for Survival and Morbidity-Free Survival in the Oldest-Old Framingham Heart Study Participants. Journal of the American Geriatrics Society, 53: 1944–1950. doi: 10.1111/j.1532-5415.2005.00465.x
- Issue published online: 23 SEP 2005
- Article first published online: 23 SEP 2005
- cohort studies;
- risk assessment;
Objectives: To examine whether midlife cardiovascular risk factors predict survival and survival free of major comorbidities to the age of 85.
Design: Prospective community-based cohort study.
Setting: Framingham Heart Study, Massachusetts.
Participants: Two thousand five hundred thirty-one individuals (1,422 women) who attended at least two examinations between the ages of 40 and 50.
Measurements: Risk factors were classified at routine examinations performed between the ages of 40 and 50. Stepwise sex-adjusted logistic regression models predicting the outcomes of survival and survival free of morbidity to age 85 were selected from the following risk factors: systolic and diastolic blood pressure, total serum cholesterol, glucose intolerance, cigarette smoking, education, body mass index, physical activity index, pulse pressure, antihypertensive medication, and electrocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy.
Results: More than one-third of the study sample survived to age 85, and 22% of the original study sample survived free of morbidity. Lower midlife blood pressure and total cholesterol levels, absence of glucose intolerance, nonsmoking status, higher educational attainment, and female sex predicted overall and morbidity-free survival. The predicted probability of survival to age 85 fell in the presence of accumulating risk factors: 37% for men with no risk factors to 2% with all five risk factors and 65% for women with no risk factors to 14% with all five risk factors.
Conclusion: Lower levels of key cardiovascular risk factors in middle age predicted overall survival and major morbidity-free survival to age 85. Recognizing and modifying these factors may delay, if not prevent, age-related morbidity and mortality.