The author is a Professor of Economics at the University of Nebraska at Omaha. Much of his past research has been on topics in the economics of science. Much of his current research explores the implications of the process of creative destruction. He may be contacted by mail at: Department of Economics, University of Nebraska at Omaha, Omaha, NE 68182-0048; e-mail: adiamond@mail.unomaha.edu. The research reported in this article was partially supported by a grant from the National Science Foundation, a grant-in-aid from Ohio State, and release time from the University Committee on Research at the University of Nebraska at Omaha. The author is especially grateful for the detailed comments from Luis Locay, Hajime Miyazaki, Brian A. Pethica, Aloysius Siow, and Larry Stern. He also received useful comments from Felix Franks, Donald R. Haurin, Harmon Maher, Kenneth Wolpin, and participants in the Labor Workshop at Ohio State. He is grateful to Gregory Armotrading, Mark Chapinski, Jack Julian, Lisa Knazek, Bret Mizer, Maureen Ogle, Christopher Smith, James Thomas, William Tisch, Ann Wertz, and Kathryn Williams for able research assistance. Henry Small of the Institute for Scientific Information graciously provided the author with 1970 and 1971 co-citation cluster data. The author thanks Irving Klotz for first suggesting the appropriateness of the polywater episode as an example of a mistake. A few paragraphs in the current article also appear in his (1993a) paper on polywater. An earlier draft was presented at the Conference on “Evolution of Scientific Knowledge,” at the Santa Fe Institute in May 1998.
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The Career Consequences of a Mistaken Research Project: The Case of Polywater
Article first published online: 9 APR 2009
DOI: 10.1111/j.1536-7150.2009.00633.x
© 2009 American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Inc.
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How to Cite
Diamond, Jr., A. M. (2009), The Career Consequences of a Mistaken Research Project: The Case of Polywater. American Journal of Economics and Sociology, 68: 387–411. doi: 10.1111/j.1536-7150.2009.00633.x
Publication History
- Issue published online: 9 APR 2009
- Article first published online: 9 APR 2009
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Abstract
Polywater, one of the most famous mistaken scientific research programs of the past half-century, is used as a case study to examine whether polywater researchers later experienced lower citation counts, or less favorable job mobility. The primary result is that simply writing on polywater, either pro or con, has a negative impact on future citations, in comparison with those who never wrote on polywater. The lifetime value of the lost citations is roughly in the range of $13,000 to $19,000. However writing on polywater did not affect the probability of a scientist leaving university employment.