SEARCH

SEARCH BY CITATION

Keywords:

  • F31;
  • E52;
  • G15
  • exchange rates;
  • microstructure;
  • FOMC;
  • central bank policy

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting days provide a natural laboratory for exploring the effects of policy uncertainty and learning on exchange rate determination. A reasonable hypothesis is that the meeting outcomes are price-relevant public information associated with a switch to an “informed-trading state.” Evidence is provided by intradaily exchange rates for 10 FOMC meetings. A particularly interesting finding is that the informed-trading regime tends to emerge during the time that the FOMC meets. An extensive search of public news indicates that the informed trading cannot be explained as the response to public information.