The authors are grateful for useful comments from Peren Arin, Ansgar Belke, Helge Berger, Marcel Thum, as well as an anonymous referee. We also wish to thank Jon Coll for providing his database of Irish opinion polls. The usual disclaimer applies.
Unemployment and Inflation Consequences of Unexpected Election Results
Article first published online: 20 NOV 2007
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking
Volume 39, Issue 8, pages 1919–1945, December 2007
How to Cite
BERLEMANN, M. and MARKWARDT, G. (2007), Unemployment and Inflation Consequences of Unexpected Election Results. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 39: 1919–1945. doi: 10.1111/j.1538-4616.2007.00093.x
- Issue published online: 20 NOV 2007
- Article first published online: 20 NOV 2007
- Received February 28, 2006; and accepted in revised form May 26, 2007.
- rational partisan theory;
- political business cycles;
- election outcome uncertainty
The empirical evidence toward rational partisan theory of business cycles is mixed and thus inconclusive. This is due to the enormous heterogeneity of the existing empirical studies. Only a few of these test explicitly for the central theoretical innovation that post-electoral blips in economic activity depend on the degree of the electoral surprise. Using polling data we present empirical evidence in favor of rational partisan theory for a panel of OECD countries.