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Evaluation of the Quality of Safety and Risk Analysis in the Chemical Industry

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Abstract

Safety and risk analyses have often been criticized as incomplete and inaccurate. This criticism, however, lacks a sound basis, since there has been little scientific evaluation of the methods developed for safety and risk analysis. The aim of this paper is to present a proposal for establishing measures—reliability, validity, and coverage—to be used in the evaluation of the scientific quality of the hazard identification and accident modeling phases in safety and risk analysis. The paper also presents four main principles for the evaluation of the scientific quality, and a theoretical framework to be used in evaluation. The framework is illustrated with practical examples taken from the chemical industry.

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