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Modeling Values for Anti-Terrorism Analysis

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    DHS objectives are those for the nation, not for the Department. The use of the phrases DHS objectives, priorities, and value model is just a concise way to represent the objectives of our nation regarding anti-terrorism.

*Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708-0120, USA; tel: 415-433-8338; fax: 415-434-0968; keeneyr@aol.com.

Abstract

Decisions are made to achieve objectives. A qualitative list of the objectives for a decision is the foundation for a value model that unambiguously represents objectives in a quantitative manner. The objectives guide thinking and the value model provides a basis for analyzing alternatives to best meet the desired objectives. This article illustrates the usefulness of clearly identifying objectives and developing value models to support anti-terrorism analysis. It outlines procedures to develop value models for the Department of Homeland Security and for terrorist organizations. The later is useful to both design anti-terrorism alternatives and suggest possible terrorist priorities and actions. An example that develops a terrorist value model for the theft and misuse of plutonium is presented. Several uses of value models for anti-terrorist activities are discussed and suggestions for developing such value models are outlined.

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