Benchmark Analysis for Quantifying Urban Vulnerability to Terrorist Incidents

  1. Walter W. Piegorsch†,*,
  2. Susan L. Cutter‡,
  3. Frank Hardisty§

Article first published online: 11 DEC 2007

DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2007.00977.x

Issue

Risk Analysis

Risk Analysis

Volume 27, Issue 6, pages 1411–1425, December 2007

Additional Information

How to Cite

Piegorsch, W. W., Cutter, S. L. and Hardisty, F. (2007), Benchmark Analysis for Quantifying Urban Vulnerability to Terrorist Incidents. Risk Analysis, 27: 1411–1425. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2007.00977.x

Author Information

  1. †

    Interdisciplinary Program in Statistics, BIO5 Institute, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA.

  2. ‡

    Hazards & Vulnerability Research Institute, Department of Geography, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC 29208, USA.

  3. §

    GeoVista Center, Department of Geography, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA.

* *Address correspondence to Walter W. Piegorsch, BIO5 Institute, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA; tel: 520-621-2357; fax: 520-626-4824; piegorsch@math.arizona.edu.

  • †

    Interdisciplinary Program in Statistics, BIO5 Institute, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA.

  • ‡

    Hazards & Vulnerability Research Institute, Department of Geography, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC 29208, USA.

  • §

    GeoVista Center, Department of Geography, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA.

Publication History

  1. Issue published online: 11 DEC 2007
  2. Article first published online: 11 DEC 2007

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Keywords:

  • Benchmark index;
  • complementary log-log model;
  • homeland security;
  • urban vulnerability analysis

We describe a quantitative methodology to characterize the vulnerability of U.S. urban centers to terrorist attack, using a place-based vulnerability index and a database of terrorist incidents and related human casualties. Via generalized linear statistical models, we study the relationships between vulnerability and terrorist events, and find that our place-based vulnerability metric significantly describes both terrorist incidence and occurrence of human casualties from terrorist events in these urban centers. We also introduce benchmark analytic technologies from applications in toxicological risk assessment to this social risk/vulnerability paradigm, and use these to distinguish levels of high and low urban vulnerability to terrorism. It is seen that the benchmark approach translates quite flexibly from its biological roots to this social scientific archetype.

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