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Effects of Etiological Agent and Bather Shedding of Pathogens on Interpretation of Epidemiological Data Used to Establish Recreational Water Quality Standards

Authors

  • Frank J. Loge,

    Corresponding author
      *Address correspondence to Frank J. Loge, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California Davis, 1 Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616, USA; tel: 530-754-2297; fax: 530-752-7872; fjloge@ucdavis.edu.
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      Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California Davis, 1 Shields Avenue, Davis, CA, USA.

  • Elisabetta Lambertini,

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      Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California Davis, 1 Shields Avenue, Davis, CA, USA.

  • Mark A. Borchardt,

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      Marshfield Clinic Research Foundation, 1000 North Oak Avenue, Marshfield, WI, USA.

  • Hakan Başağaoğlu,

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      Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Davis, and currently Senior Research Scientist, Southwest Research Institute, 6220 Culebra Road, San Antonio, TX, USA.

  • Timothy R. Ginn

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      Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California Davis, 1 Shields Avenue, Davis, CA, USA.


*Address correspondence to Frank J. Loge, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California Davis, 1 Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616, USA; tel: 530-754-2297; fax: 530-752-7872; fjloge@ucdavis.edu.

Abstract

The overall goal of the study reported herein was to use techniques in the field of risk assessment (specifically a state-space population dynamic model of disease transmission within recreational waters) to explore the relative significance of (1) active shedding of microorganisms from bathers themselves, and (2) the type and concentration of etiological agent on the observed heterogeneity of the incidence of illness in epidemiological studies that have been used to develop ambient water quality criteria. The etiological agent and corresponding dose ingested during recreational contact was found to significantly impact the observed incidence of illness in an epidemiological study conducted in recreational water. In addition, the observed incidence of illness was found not to necessarily reflect background concentrations of indicator organisms, but rather microorganisms shed during recreational contact. Future revisions to ambient water quality criteria should address the etiological agent, dose, and the significance of microbial shedding relative to background concentrations of pathogens and indicator organisms in addition to the incidence of illness and concentration of indicator organisms. Without a quantitative assessment of these additional variables, study findings may potentially be site specific and not representative of the health risks associated with specific indicator concentrations in all recreational waters.

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