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Global Sensitivity Analysis Applied to a Contamination Assessment Model of Listeria monocytogenes in Cold Smoked Salmon at Consumption

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Address correspondence to Mariem Ellouze, 7, Avenue du Général de Gaulle, Pôle HQSA, Maisons Alfort 94700, France; mellouze@vet-alfort.fr.

Abstract

In this study, a variance-based global sensitivity analysis method was first applied to a contamination assessment model of Listeria monocytogenes in cold smoked vacuum packed salmon at consumption. The impact of the choice of the modeling approach (populational or cellular) of the primary and secondary models as well as the effect of their associated input factors on the final contamination level was investigated. Results provided a subset of important factors, including the food water activity, its storage temperature, and duration in the domestic refrigerator. A refined sensitivity analysis was then performed to rank the important factors, tested over narrower ranges of variation corresponding to their current distributions, using three techniques: ANOVA, Spearman correlation coefficient, and partial least squares regression. Finally, the refined sensitivity analysis was used to rank the important factors.

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