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A Value Model for Evaluating Homeland Security Decisions


Ralph L. Keeney, 101 Lombard St., # 704W, San Francisco, CA 94111, USA; tel: 415-433-8338; fax: 415-434-0968;


One of the most challenging tasks of homeland security policymakers is to allocate their limited resources to reduce terrorism risks cost effectively. To accomplish this task, it is useful to develop a comprehensive set of homeland security objectives, metrics to measure each objective, a utility function, and value tradeoffs relevant for making homeland security investments. Together, these elements form a homeland security value model. This article develops a homeland security value model based on literature reviews, a survey, and experience with building value models. The purposes of the article are to motivate the use of a value model for homeland security decision making and to illustrate its use to assess terrorism risks, assess the benefits of countermeasures, and develop a severity index for terrorism attacks.