Using Simulation to Evaluate Time to Detect Incursions in Honeybee Biosecurity in Australia


David Clifford, CSIRO Mathematics, Informatics and Statistics, Ecosciences Precinct, PO Box 2583, QLD 4001, Australia;


A key determinant of the efficiency of a surveillance system for exotic mites is whether an incursion might be detected sufficiently quickly to allow successful management actions to occur. To assess this possibility we have developed a spatial modeling system and synthesized knowledge of honeybee and mite behavior to explore the potential spread of exotic mites and the likelihood of their detection in sentinel hives. We find that increasing the number of hives and the efficiency of the detection method are the most effective means of improving the time to detection.