The Brown Foundation Institute of Molecular Medicine, University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, Houston, TX, USA.
Section II: The Models
Chapter 11: Rice-MD Anderson Lung Cancer Model
Article first published online: 7 AUG 2012
© 2011 Society for Risk Analysis
Special Issue: The Impact of the Reduction in Tobacco Smoking on U.S. Lung Cancer Mortality (1975-2000): Collective Results from the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET)
Volume 32, Issue Supplement s1, pages S142–S150, August 2012
How to Cite
Foy, M., Deng, L., Spitz, M., Gorlova, O. and Kimmel, M. (2012), Chapter 11: Rice-MD Anderson Lung Cancer Model. Risk Analysis, 32: S142–S150. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01741.x
- Issue published online: 7 AUG 2012
- Article first published online: 7 AUG 2012
- Lung cancer;
- risk prediction model;
The Rice-MD Anderson group uses a two-stage clonal expansion (TSCE) model of lung cancer mortality calibrated to a combination of MD Anderson case-control data on smoking histories and lung cancer mortality/incidence rate data collected from prospective cohorts in order to predict risk of lung cancer. This model is used to simulate lung cancer mortality in the U.S. population under the three scenarios of CISNET lung group's smoking base case project in order to estimate the effect of tobacco control policy on lung cancer mortality rates. Simulation results show that tobacco control policies have achieved 35% of the reduction in lung cancer mortality that would have resulted from cessation of all smoking in 1965.