Chapter 11: Rice-MD Anderson Lung Cancer Model

Authors

  • Millennia Foy,

    Corresponding author
      Millennia Foy, 1825 Pressler St., 530-11, Houston, TX 77030, USA; millennia.foy@uth.tmc.edu
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    • The Brown Foundation Institute of Molecular Medicine, University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, Houston, TX, USA.

    • Department of Epidemiology, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX, USA.

  • Li Deng,

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    • Department of Vision Science, New England College of Optometry, Boston, MA, USA.

  • Margaret Spitz,

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    • The Brown Foundation Institute of Molecular Medicine, University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, Houston, TX, USA.

  • Olga Gorlova,

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    • The Brown Foundation Institute of Molecular Medicine, University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, Houston, TX, USA.

  • Marek Kimmel

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    • Department of Epidemiology, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX, USA.

    • Systems Engineering Group, Silesian University of Technology, Gliwice, Poland.


Millennia Foy, 1825 Pressler St., 530-11, Houston, TX 77030, USA; millennia.foy@uth.tmc.edu

Abstract

The Rice-MD Anderson group uses a two-stage clonal expansion (TSCE) model of lung cancer mortality calibrated to a combination of MD Anderson case-control data on smoking histories and lung cancer mortality/incidence rate data collected from prospective cohorts in order to predict risk of lung cancer. This model is used to simulate lung cancer mortality in the U.S. population under the three scenarios of CISNET lung group's smoking base case project in order to estimate the effect of tobacco control policy on lung cancer mortality rates. Simulation results show that tobacco control policies have achieved 35% of the reduction in lung cancer mortality that would have resulted from cessation of all smoking in 1965.

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