• Lung cancer;
  • risk prediction model;
  • smoking

The Rice-MD Anderson group uses a two-stage clonal expansion (TSCE) model of lung cancer mortality calibrated to a combination of MD Anderson case-control data on smoking histories and lung cancer mortality/incidence rate data collected from prospective cohorts in order to predict risk of lung cancer. This model is used to simulate lung cancer mortality in the U.S. population under the three scenarios of CISNET lung group's smoking base case project in order to estimate the effect of tobacco control policy on lung cancer mortality rates. Simulation results show that tobacco control policies have achieved 35% of the reduction in lung cancer mortality that would have resulted from cessation of all smoking in 1965.