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Original Research Article
A Note on the Aggregation of Event Probabilities
Article first published online: 17 SEP 2012
DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01889.x
© 2012 Society for Risk Analysis
Additional Information
How to Cite
Hora, S. C. (2013), A Note on the Aggregation of Event Probabilities. Risk Analysis, 33: 909–914. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01889.x
Publication History
- Issue published online: 3 MAY 2013
- Article first published online: 17 SEP 2012
Funded by
- United States Department of Homeland Security
- National Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE). Grant Number: 2010-ST-061-RE0001
- United States Department of Homeland Security
- University of Southern California
- CREATE
- Abstract
- Article
- References
- Cited By
Keywords:
- Bayes's theorem;
- calibration;
- conditional independence;
- discrimination;
- expert judgment
In this article, multiple forecasts given as probabilities of events are aggregated using two assumptions: calibration and conditional independence. The forecasts are treated as data and the aggregation is based on Bayes's theorem. A measure of discrimination is given and the behavior of the aggregated posterior probability is examined as the number of forecasters grows without bound. The work is motivated by recent research efforts employing large numbers of individual forecasts.