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Risk of Large-Scale Evacuation Based on the Effectiveness of Rescue Strategies Under Different Crowd Densities

Authors

  • Jinghong Wang,

    1. State Key Laboratory of Fire Science, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China
    2. USTC-CityU Joint Advanced Research Centre (Suzhou), Suzhou 215123, China
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  • Siuming Lo,

    1. USTC-CityU Joint Advanced Research Centre (Suzhou), Suzhou 215123, China
    2. Department of Civil and Architectural Engineering, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
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  • Qingsong Wang,

    1. State Key Laboratory of Fire Science, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China
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  • Jinhua Sun,

    Corresponding author
    1. USTC-CityU Joint Advanced Research Centre (Suzhou), Suzhou 215123, China
    • State Key Laboratory of Fire Science, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China
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  • Honglin Mu

    1. State Key Laboratory of Fire Science, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China
    2. USTC-CityU Joint Advanced Research Centre (Suzhou), Suzhou 215123, China
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Address correspondence to Jinhua Sun, State Key Laboratory of Fire Science, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China and USTC-CityU Joint Advanced Research Centre (Suzhou), Suzhou 215123, China; sunjh@ustc.edu.cn.

Abstract

Crowd density is a key factor that influences the moving characteristics of a large group of people during a large-scale evacuation. In this article, the macro features of crowd flow and subsequent rescue strategies were considered, and a series of characteristic crowd densities that affect large-scale people movement, as well as the maximum bearing density when the crowd is extremely congested, were analyzed. On the basis of characteristic crowd densities, the queuing theory was applied to simulate crowd movement. Accordingly, the moving characteristics of the crowd and the effects of typical crowd density—which is viewed as the representation of the crowd's arrival intensity in front of the evacuation passageways—on rescue strategies was studied. Furthermore, a “risk axle of crowd density” is proposed to determine the efficiency of rescue strategies in a large-scale evacuation, i.e., whether the rescue strategies are able to effectively maintain or improve evacuation efficiency. Finally, through some rational hypotheses for the value of evacuation risk, a three-dimensional distribution of the evacuation risk is established to illustrate the risk axle of crowd density. This work aims to make some macro, but original, analysis on the risk of large-scale crowd evacuation from the perspective of the efficiency of rescue strategies.

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