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ABSTRACT

This paper shows that the empirical tests of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) model are very sensitive to the anomalies observed in January in the stock returns data. There is a strong seasonal pattern in the estimates of the risk premia from the APT model. The most important implication of the findings in this paper is that the APT model can explain the risk-return relation mostly for January. Once the January returns are excluded from the data, there is no significant relation between the expected stock returns and the risk measures predicted by the APT model.