The January Effect and Aggregate Insider Trading

Authors

  • H. NEJAT SEYHUN

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    • School of Business Administration, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor. Helpful comments from Michael Bradley, Stanley Kon, Jay Ritter, and an anonymous referee are appreciated.

ABSTRACT

This study investigates the seasonal pattern of aggregate insider trading to help distinguish between two competing explanations for the seasonal pattern of security returns. The first potential explanation examined is that the January effect arises from predictable changes in turn-of-the-year demand for securities. The second potential explanation examined is that the January effect represents compensation for the higher risk of trading against informed traders at the turn of the year.

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