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Predictive Regressions: A Present-Value Approach




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    • van Binsbergen is with the Graduate School of Business of Stanford University and Koijen is with the University of Chicago, Booth School of Business. Binsbergen and Koijen are also affiliated with the NBER. Koijen is also associated with Netspar (Tilburg University). We thank the acting editor, John Y. Campbell, for his valuable suggestions. We would also like to thank Lieven Baele, Ravi Bansal, Geert Bekaert, Alan Bester, Michael Brandt, Alon Brav, Ben Broadbent, Hui Chen, John Cochrane, George Constantinides, Joost Driessen, Darrell Duffie, Gene Fama, Jesus Fernández-Villaverde, Xavier Gabaix, Eric Ghysels, Will Goetzmann, Chris Jones, Frank de Jong, Ron Kaniel, Martin Lettau, Hanno Lustig, Anthony Lynch, Toby Moskowitz, Justin Murfin, Theo Nijman, Ľuboš Pástor, Anamaría Pieschacón, Nick Polson, Matt Richardson, Juan Rubio-Ramírez, Yuliy Sannikov, Ken Singleton, Pilar Soriano, Allan Timmermann, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, Pietro Veronesi, Luis Viceira, Vish Viswanathan, Jessica Wachter, Bas Werker, Amir Yaron, and seminar participants at the WFA meetings 2008, Chicago Booth, Duke University, the Stanford-Berkeley Seminar, Tilburg University, the Rotman School, UCSD-Rady School of Management, University of Southern California, University of Wisconsin-Madison, and UCLA for useful comments and suggestions.


We propose a latent variables approach within a present-value model to estimate the expected returns and expected dividend growth rates of the aggregate stock market. This approach aggregates information contained in the history of price-dividend ratios and dividend growth rates to predict future returns and dividend growth rates. We find that returns and dividend growth rates are predictable with R2 values ranging from 8.2% to 8.9% for returns and 13.9% to 31.6% for dividend growth rates. Both expected returns and expected dividend growth rates have a persistent component, but expected returns are more persistent than expected dividend growth rates.