Short-Horizon Return Predictability in International Equity Markets


Corresponding author: La Trobe University, School of Economics and Finance, Bundoora, Victoria, Australia; Phone: +61394796616; Fax: +61394791654; E-mail:


This study measures the degree of short-horizon return predictability of 50 international equity markets and examines how its variation is related to the indicators of equity market development. Two multiple-horizon variance ratio tests are employed to measure the degree of return predictability. We find evidence that return predictability is negatively correlated with publicly available indicators of equity market development. Our cross-sectional regression analysis shows that the per capita gross domestic product, market turnover, investor protection, and absence of short-selling restrictions are correlated with cross-market variations in return predictability.