A Space–Time Conditional Intensity Model for Invasive Meningococcal Disease Occurrence
Article first published online: 9 OCT 2011
© 2011, The International Biometric Society
Volume 68, Issue 2, pages 607–616, June 2012
How to Cite
Meyer, S., Elias, J. and Höhle, M. (2012), A Space–Time Conditional Intensity Model for Invasive Meningococcal Disease Occurrence. Biometrics, 68: 607–616. doi: 10.1111/j.1541-0420.2011.01684.x
- Issue published online: 26 JUN 2012
- Article first published online: 9 OCT 2011
- Received November 2010. Revised August 2011. Accepted August 2011.
- Conditional intensity function;
- Infectious disease surveillance data;
- Spatiotemporal point process;
- Stochastic epidemic modeling
Summary A novel point process model continuous in space–time is proposed for quantifying the transmission dynamics of the two most common meningococcal antigenic sequence types observed in Germany 2002–2008. Modeling is based on the conditional intensity function (CIF), which is described by a superposition of additive and multiplicative components. As an epidemiological interesting finding, spread behavior was shown to depend on type in addition to age: basic reproduction numbers were 0.25 (95% CI 0.19–0.34) and 0.11 (95% CI 0.07–0.17) for types B:P1.7–2,4:F1–5 and C:P1.5,2:F3–3, respectively. Altogether, the proposed methodology represents a comprehensive and universal regression framework for the modeling, simulation, and inference of self-exciting spatiotemporal point processes based on the CIF. Usability of the modeling in biometric practice is promoted by an implementation in the R package surveillance.