Chain Binomial Models and Binomial Autoregressive Processes
Article first published online: 7 DEC 2011
© 2011, The International Biometric Society
Volume 68, Issue 3, pages 815–824, September 2012
How to Cite
Weiß, C. H. and Pollett, P. K. (2012), Chain Binomial Models and Binomial Autoregressive Processes. Biometrics, 68: 815–824. doi: 10.1111/j.1541-0420.2011.01716.x
- Issue published online: 26 SEP 2012
- Article first published online: 7 DEC 2011
- Received January 2011. Revised October 2011. Accepted October 2011.
- Binomial AR(1) model;
- Conditional distribution;
- Metapopulation models;
- Parameter estimation
Summary We establish a connection between a class of chain-binomial models of use in ecology and epidemiology and binomial autoregressive (AR) processes. New results are obtained for the latter, including expressions for the lag- conditional distribution and related quantities. We focus on two types of chain-binomial model, extinction–colonization and colonization–extinction models, and present two approaches to parameter estimation. The asymptotic distributions of the resulting estimators are studied, as well as their finite-sample performance, and we give an application to real data. A connection is made with standard AR models, which also has implications for parameter estimation.