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Keywords:

  • Binomial AR(1) model;
  • Conditional distribution;
  • Metapopulation models;
  • Parameter estimation

Summary We establish a connection between a class of chain-binomial models of use in ecology and epidemiology and binomial autoregressive (AR) processes. New results are obtained for the latter, including expressions for the lag-inline image conditional distribution and related quantities. We focus on two types of chain-binomial model, extinction–colonization and colonization–extinction models, and present two approaches to parameter estimation. The asymptotic distributions of the resulting estimators are studied, as well as their finite-sample performance, and we give an application to real data. A connection is made with standard AR models, which also has implications for parameter estimation.