This research was supported by grant MH35997 from the National Institute of Mental Health to the authors, and by Research Scientist Award K2MH00257 to the first author.
A Two-Factor Model for Predicting When a Couple Will Divorce: Exploratory Analyses Using 14-Year Longitudinal Data†
Article first published online: 6 MAY 2004
Volume 41, Issue 1, pages 83–96, March 2002
How to Cite
Gottman, J. M. and Levenson, R. W. (2002), A Two-Factor Model for Predicting When a Couple Will Divorce: Exploratory Analyses Using 14-Year Longitudinal Data. Family Process, 41: 83–96. doi: 10.1111/j.1545-5300.2002.40102000083.x
- Issue published online: 6 MAY 2004
- Article first published online: 6 MAY 2004
- Manuscript received January 31, 2000; revision submitted November 14, 2000; accepted November 20, 2001.
This article examines 14-year longitudinal data and attempts to create a post hoc model that uses Time-1 data to “predict” the length of time the marriage will last. The sample consists of the 21 couples (of 79 studied) who divorced over a 14-year period. A two-factor model is proposed. One factor is the amount of unregulated volatile positive and negative affect in the marriage, and this factor predicts a short marriage length for the divorcing couples. A second factor is called “neutral affective style,” and this factor predicts a long marriage length for the divorcing couples. This model is compared to a Time-1 model of ailing marriage in which Time-1 marital satisfaction is used to predict the timing of divorce.