A Two-Factor Model for Predicting When a Couple Will Divorce: Exploratory Analyses Using 14-Year Longitudinal Data†

  1. John Mordechai Gottman Ph.D.1,
  2. Robert Wayne Levenson Ph.D.2

Article first published online: 6 MAY 2004

DOI: 10.1111/j.1545-5300.2002.40102000083.x

Issue

Family Process

Family Process

Volume 41, Issue 1, pages 83–96, March 2002

Additional Information

How to Cite

Gottman, J. M. and Levenson, R. W. (2002), A Two-Factor Model for Predicting When a Couple Will Divorce: Exploratory Analyses Using 14-Year Longitudinal Data. Family Process, 41: 83–96. doi: 10.1111/j.1545-5300.2002.40102000083.x

Author Information

  1. 1

    James Mifflin Professor of Psychology, Department of Psychology, Box 351525, University of Washington, Seattle WA 98195-1525; e-mail: jgottman@gottman.com.

  2. 2

    Professor and Director of the Institute for Personality Research, Department of Psychology, University of California; e-mail: boblev@socrates.berkeley.edu.

  • †

    This research was supported by grant MH35997 from the National Institute of Mental Health to the authors, and by Research Scientist Award K2MH00257 to the first author.

Publication History

  1. Issue published online: 6 MAY 2004
  2. Article first published online: 6 MAY 2004
  3. Manuscript received January 31, 2000; revision submitted November 14, 2000; accepted November 20, 2001.

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This article examines 14-year longitudinal data and attempts to create a post hoc model that uses Time-1 data to “predict” the length of time the marriage will last. The sample consists of the 21 couples (of 79 studied) who divorced over a 14-year period. A two-factor model is proposed. One factor is the amount of unregulated volatile positive and negative affect in the marriage, and this factor predicts a short marriage length for the divorcing couples. A second factor is called “neutral affective style,” and this factor predicts a long marriage length for the divorcing couples. This model is compared to a Time-1 model of ailing marriage in which Time-1 marital satisfaction is used to predict the timing of divorce.

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