BRIDGING SCALES IN THE EVOLUTION OF INFECTIOUS DISEASE LIFE HISTORIES: THEORY
Article first published online: 19 JUL 2011
© 2011 The Author(s). Evolution© 2011 The Society for the Study of Evolution.
Volume 65, Issue 12, pages 3448–3461, December 2011
How to Cite
Day, T., Alizon, S. and Mideo, N. (2011), BRIDGING SCALES IN THE EVOLUTION OF INFECTIOUS DISEASE LIFE HISTORIES: THEORY. Evolution, 65: 3448–3461. doi: 10.1111/j.1558-5646.2011.01394.x
- Issue published online: 1 DEC 2011
- Article first published online: 19 JUL 2011
- Accepted manuscript online: 27 JUN 2011 11:40AM EST
- Received December 23, 2010, Accepted June 1, 2011
- Nested models;
- transmission-virulence tradeoff;
A significant goal of recent theoretical research on pathogen evolution has been to develop theory that bridges within- and between-host dynamics. The main approach used to date is one that nests within-host models of pathogen replication in models for the between-host spread of infectious diseases. Although this provides an elegant approach, it nevertheless suffers from some practical difficulties. In particular, the information required to satisfactorily model the mechanistic details of the within-host dynamics is not often available. Here, we present a theoretical approach that circumvents these difficulties by quantifying the relevant within-host factors in an empirically tractable way. The approach is closely related to quantitative genetic models for function-valued traits, and it also allows for the prediction of general characteristics of disease life history, including the timing of virulence, transmission, and host recovery. In a companion paper, we illustrate the approach by applying it to data from a model system of malaria.