Many thanks to C. S. Papacostas for his comments on an earlier draft of the manuscript.
Hindsight Distortion: “I knew-it-all along and I was sure about it”1
Version of Record online: 31 JUL 2006
Journal of Applied Social Psychology
Volume 16, Issue 2, pages 107–117, March 1986
How to Cite
Synodinos, N. E. (1986), Hindsight Distortion: “I knew-it-all along and I was sure about it”. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 16: 107–117. doi: 10.1111/j.1559-1816.1986.tb02282.x
- Issue online: 31 JUL 2006
- Version of Record online: 31 JUL 2006
Hindsight distortion was examined in the context of the 1982 Hawaiian gubernatorial election by obtaining estimates from 474 persons either prior or after the election. Two motivational factors (global self-esteem and political involvement) were also measured. Despite the accuracy of subjects in foresight, hindsight distortion was demonstrated. The most pronounced effect was exhibited in the subjects' degree of confidence which was significantly (p < .0001) higher in hindsight than in foresight. There was no mediation by global self-esteem or by political involvement. The findings support that hindsight distortion occurs because of biases in information processing, rather than through mediation by motivational factors.