We would like to thank Larry Doyle and Bret Robertson for their assistance in developing the materials and in data collection, and Chuck Parsons for helpful comments on an earlier draft of this manuscript. Preparation of this manuscript was facilitated by a grant to the first author from the NSF-EPSCoR Project to Advance Science Excellence in North Dakota.
Ambiguity and Human Versus Technological Sources of Information in Judgments Involving Base Rate and Individuating Information1
Version of Record online: 31 JUL 2006
Journal of Applied Social Psychology
Volume 22, Issue 12, pages 973–997, June 1992
How to Cite
Hinsz, V. B. and TINDALE, R. S. (1992), Ambiguity and Human Versus Technological Sources of Information in Judgments Involving Base Rate and Individuating Information. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 22: 973–997. doi: 10.1111/j.1559-1816.1992.tb00937.x
- Issue online: 31 JUL 2006
- Version of Record online: 31 JUL 2006
This experiment examined the role that ambiguity and uncertainty play in the use of base rate and individuating information in probability judgments. Subjects responded to a number of inference problems that varied in terms of base rates and the accuracy of the source of the individuating information. The ambiguity in the decision situation was also manipulated by varying the human or technological nature of the source of the individuating information and the causal relevance of the base rate information. The results provide substantial support for the predictions derived from the ambiguity conceptualization. Several interactions were uncovered involving attributes of the base rate and individuating information suggesting complex judgmental processes similar to anchoring and adjustment. Discussion focused on the role that human versus technological sources of information may play in judgment and decision making, and the utility of the ambiguity notion for understanding the use of base rate and individuating information in probabilistic inference problems.