Do rainfall conditions push or pull rural migrants: evidence from Malawi

Authors

  • Paul A. Lewin,

    Corresponding author
    1. Moody's Analytic, 121 N Walnut St Suite 500, West Chester, PA 1980, USA
    Search for more papers by this author
  • Monica Fisher,

    1. Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Oregon State University, 213 Ballard Extension Hall, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA
    2. International Food Policy Research Institute, 2033 K Street, NW, Washington DC, 20006, USA
    Search for more papers by this author
  • Bruce Weber

    1. Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Oregon State University, 213 Ballard Extension Hall, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA
    Search for more papers by this author

  • This article was completely prepared while the first author was at Oregon State University.

  • Data Appendix Available Online A data appendix to replicate main results is available in the online version of this article. Please note: Wiley-Blackwell is not responsible for the content or functionality of any supporting information supplied by the authors. Any queries (other than missing material) should be directed to the corresponding author for the article.

Tel.: (610) 235-5179; fax: (610) 235-5302 E-mail address: plewin@uc.cl (Paul A. Lewin).

Abstract

This article uses nationally representative data from Malawi's 2004/05 Integrated Household Survey (IHS2) to examine whether rainfall conditions influence a rural worker's decision to make a long-term move to an urban or another rural area. Results of a Full Information Maximum Likelihood regression model reveal that (1) rainfall shocks have a negative association with rural out-migration, (2) migrants choose to move to communities where rainfall variability and drought probability are lower, and (3) rainfall shocks have larger negative effects on the consumption of recent migrants than on the consumption of long-time residents.

Ancillary