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The impacts of biofuels targets on land-use change and food supply: A global CGE assessment
Version of Record online: 30 MAR 2012
© 2012 International Association of Agricultural Economists
Volume 43, Issue 3, pages 315–332, May 2012
How to Cite
Timilsina, G. R., Beghin, J. C., van der Mensbrugghe, D. and Mevel, S. (2012), The impacts of biofuels targets on land-use change and food supply: A global CGE assessment. Agricultural Economics, 43: 315–332. doi: 10.1111/j.1574-0862.2012.00585.x
- Issue online: 19 APR 2012
- Version of Record online: 30 MAR 2012
- Received 14 January 2011; received in revised form 14 July 2011; accepted 27 October 2011
- Land use;
- Food supply;
- Food prices;
- CGE model;
We analyze the long-term impacts of large-scale expansion of biofuels on land-use change, food supply and prices, and the overall economy in various countries or regions using a multi-country, multi-sector global computable general equilibrium model augmented with an explicit land-use module and detailed biofuel sectors. We find that an expansion of biofuel production to meet the existing or even higher targets in various countries would slightly reduce GDP at the global level but with mixed effects across countries or regions. Significant land re-allocation would take place with notable decreases in forest and pasture lands in a few countries. The expansion of biofuels would cause a moderate decrease in world food supply and more significant decreases in developing countries like India and Sub-Saharan Africa. Feedstock commodities (sugar, corn and oil seeds) would experience significant increases in their prices in 2020, but other price changes are small.