Arctic future scenario experiments with a coupled regional climate model
Article first published online: 8 JUL 2010
©2010 The Authors Tellus A©2010 International Meteorological Institute in Stockholm
Special Issue: SPECIAL ISSUE ON REGIONAL CLIMATE STUDIES USING THE SMHI-ROSSBY CENTRE MODELS
Volume 63, Issue 1, pages 69–86, January 2011
How to Cite
KOENIGK, T., DÖSCHER, R. and NIKULIN, G. (2011), Arctic future scenario experiments with a coupled regional climate model. Tellus A, 63: 69–86. doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00474.x
- Issue published online: 14 DEC 2010
- Article first published online: 8 JUL 2010
- Accepted manuscript online: 8 JUL 2010 12:00AM EST
- (Manuscript received 29 September 2009; in final form 4 June 2010)
A number of regional Arctic dynamical downscaling scenario experiments are performed with the Rossby Centre Atmosphere Ocean climate model. The simulations are based on IPCC AR4 scenario simulations with the global coupled models BCCR2.0 and ECHAM5/MPI-OM and differ in the surface salinity treatment and lateral boundary conditions.
Compared to the global runs, the regional simulations show a warmer Arctic, which agrees better to ERA-40 reanalysis data in the 20th century, and a slightly smaller trend in the 21st century. The ECHAM-forced runs show several periods with rapid summer sea ice reductions and partial recovery thereafter. Summer sea ice disappears for the first time around 2040.
The large-scale change patterns of sea level pressure (SLP) and air temperature in the regional simulations are mainly dominated by the forcing of the global models but locally significant modifications occur. Pressure is reduced by 1–3 hPa and air temperature increases by 2–4 K in most Arctic regions and up to 10 K where winter sea ice disappears.
The largely reduced Arctic sea ice area leads to increased atmospheric variability and more extremes in winter SLP and summer air temperature.