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Attribution of recent changes in autumn cyclone associated precipitation in the Arctic
Article first published online: 28 FEB 2011
DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2011.00515.x
©2011 The Authors Tellus A©2011 John Wiley & Sons A/S
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How to Cite
STROEVE, J. C., SERREZE, M. C., BARRETT, A. and KINDIG, D. N. (2011), Attribution of recent changes in autumn cyclone associated precipitation in the Arctic. Tellus A, 63: 653–663. doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2011.00515.x
Publication History
- Issue published online: 18 JUL 2011
- Article first published online: 28 FEB 2011
- Accepted manuscript online: 9 FEB 2011 03:54AM EST
- (Manuscript received 5 April 2010; in final form 21 January 2011)
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ABSTRACT
An Arctic Ocean with less sea ice and more open water in September has led to anomalous warming of the overlying atmosphere in autumn. Through influences on column water vapour and atmospheric circulation, it is reasonable to expect that this warming will have impacts on Arctic precipitation. Analysis of data from the JRA-25 atmospheric reanalysis reveals an autumn increase in cyclone-associated precipitation over the past decade. This is linked to a shift in atmospheric circulation towards more frequent and more intense cyclones in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic. Composites based on years with the five lowest and five highest September ice extents reveal more autumn cyclone associated precipitation and column water vapour during low ice years than during high ice years. However, difficulties in establishing cause and effect, including the absence of a clear association between spatial patterns of recent precipitation changes and ice extent anomalies, lead us to conclude that attribution of recent autumn precipitation increases to reduced ice cover is premature.