Can the Dropout Risk of Candidates with Hepatocellular Carcinoma Predict Survival after Liver Transplantation?
Article first published online: 10 JUN 2011
©2011 The Authors Journal compilation©2011 The American Society of Transplantation and the American Society of Transplant Surgeons
American Journal of Transplantation
Volume 11, Issue 8, pages 1696–1704, August 2011
How to Cite
Cucchetti, A., Cescon, M., Bertuzzo, V., Bigonzi, E., Ercolani, G., Morelli, M. C., Ravaioli, M. and Pinna, A. D. (2011), Can the Dropout Risk of Candidates with Hepatocellular Carcinoma Predict Survival after Liver Transplantation?. American Journal of Transplantation, 11: 1696–1704. doi: 10.1111/j.1600-6143.2011.03570.x
- Issue published online: 28 JUL 2011
- Article first published online: 10 JUN 2011
- Received 30 January 2011, revised 31 March 2011 and accepted for publication 04 April 2011
- hepatocellular carcinoma;
- liver transplantation;
- waiting list removal
In the last US national conference on liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), a continuous priority score, that incorporates model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), alpha-fetoprotein and tumor size, was recommended to ensure a more equitable liver allocation. However, prioritizing highest alpha-fetoprotein levels or largest tumors may select lesions at a higher risk for recurrence; similarly, patients with higher degree of liver failure could have lower postoperative survival. Data from 300 adult HCC recipients were reviewed and the proposed HCC-MELD equation was applied to verify if it can predict post-transplantation survival. The 5-year survival and recurrence rates after transplantation were 72.8 and 13.5%, respectively. Cox regression analysis confirmed HCC-MELD as predictive of both postoperative survival and recurrence (p < 0.001). The 5-year predicted survival and recurrence rates were plotted against the HCC-MELD-based dropout probability: the higher the dropout probability while on waiting list, the lower the predicted survival after transplantation, that is worsened by hepatitis C positivity; similarly, the higher the predicted HCC recurrence rate after transplantation. The HCC priority score could predict the postoperative survival of HCC recipients and could be useful in selecting patients with greater possibilities of survival, resulting in higher post-transplantation survival rates of HCC populations.