The Effect of Fertility Reduction on Economic Growth
Article first published online: 20 MAR 2013
© 2013 The Population Council, Inc.
Population and Development Review
Volume 39, Issue 1, pages 97–130, March 2013
How to Cite
Ashraf, Q. H., Weil, D. N. and Wilde, J. (2013), The Effect of Fertility Reduction on Economic Growth. Population and Development Review, 39: 97–130. doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00575.x
- Issue published online: 20 MAR 2013
- Article first published online: 20 MAR 2013
We assess quantitatively the effect of exogenous reductions in fertility on output per capita. Our simulation model allows for effects that run through schooling, the size and age structure of the population, capital accumulation, parental time input into childrearing, and crowding of fixed natural resources. The model is parameterized using a combination of microeconomic estimates and standard components of quantitative macroeconomic theory. We apply the model to examine the effect of a change in fertility from the UN medium-variant to the UN low-variant projection in Nigeria. For a base case set of parameters, we find that such a change would raise output per capita by 5.6 percent at a horizon of 20 years and by 11.9 percent at a horizon of 50 years. We conclude with a discussion of the quantitative significance of these results.