Surplus Chinese Men: Demographic Determinants of the Sex Ratio at Marriageable Ages in China
Version of Record online: 4 JUN 2013
© 2013 The Population Council, Inc.
Population and Development Review
Volume 39, Issue 2, pages 209–229, June 2013
How to Cite
Tucker, C. and Van Hook, J. (2013), Surplus Chinese Men: Demographic Determinants of the Sex Ratio at Marriageable Ages in China. Population and Development Review, 39: 209–229. doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00589.x
- Issue online: 4 JUN 2013
- Version of Record online: 4 JUN 2013
We explore the demographic factors contributing to China's unbalanced sex ratio at marriagable ages. We develop a stable population model of the sex ratio at marriagable ages, and compare a series of population projections with alternative underlying assumptions about the key demographic inputs. The stable population model demonstrates that several demographic factors interact to influence the sex ratio at marriagable ages, including the sex ratio at birth, population growth, the age gap of marriage partners, and the sex ratio of survival from birth to marriageable age. The population projections further demonstrate that policies that seek to reduce the sex ratio at birth and the age gap at marriage and, to a lesser extent, increase fertility would be most effective at alleviating the problem. But no demographic changes are likely to occur quickly enough to balance the sex ratio at marriagable ages in the near future.