He specialises in using imaging and geographic information system techniques to investigate the ecology of deep-sea hydrocarbon seeps, primarily in the Gulf of Mexico.
Best guess versus worst case
Deepwater disaster: how the oil spill estimates got it wrong
Version of Record online: 18 NOV 2010
© 2010 The Royal Statistical Society
Volume 7, Issue 4, pages 149–154, December 2010
How to Cite
MacDonald, I. (2010), Deepwater disaster: how the oil spill estimates got it wrong. Significance, 7: 149–154. doi: 10.1111/j.1740-9713.2010.00449.x
- Issue online: 18 NOV 2010
- Version of Record online: 18 NOV 2010
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- 32010) Size of spill in Gulf of Mexico is larger than thought. New York Times, April 28th. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/29/us/29spill.html.and (
- 4MarineLog (2010) Press Briefing by Coast Guard Commandant Thad Allen, and Assistant to the President for Homeland Security John Brennan on ongoing response to oil spill. Deepwater Horizon Response, May 1st. http://www.marinelog.com/DOCS/NEWSMMIX/2010may00010.html.
- 5U.S. Dept. Interior (2010) Flow Rate Group provides preliminary best estimate of oil flowing from BP oil well. Deepwater Horizon Response, May 27th. http://www.doi.gov/news/pressreleases/Flow-Rate-Group-Provides-Preliminary-Best-Estimate-Of-Oil-Flowing-from-BP-Oil-Well.cfm.
- 6U.S. Dept. Interior (2010) Admiral Allen; Dr. McNutt provide updates on progress of scientific teams analyzing flow rates from BP's well. Deepwater Horizon Response, June 10th. http://www.doi.gov/news/pressreleases/Admiral-Allen-Dr-McNutt-Provide-Updates-on-Progress-of-Scientific-Teams-Analyzing-Flow-Rates-from-BPs-Well.cfm.
- 7U.S. Dept. Interior (2010) U.S. scientific team draws on new data, multiple scientific methodologies to reach updated estimate of oil flows from BP's well. Deepwater Horizon Response, June 15th. http://www.doi.gov/news/pressreleases/Flow-Rate-Team-Updates-Estimate-of-Oil-Flowing-from-BP-Well.cfm.
- 8U.S. Dept. Interior (2010) U.S. scientific teams refine estimates of oil flow from BP's well prior to capping. Deepwater Horizon Response, August 2nd. http://www.doi.gov/news/pressreleases/US-Scientific-Teams-Refine-Estimates-of-Oil-Flow-from-BP-Well-Prior-to-Capping.cfm.
- 9CNN Wire, Coast Guard: oil rig that exploded has sunk. CNN 2010. April 22, 2010 (http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2010/04/22/coast-guard-oil-rig-that-exploded-has-sunk).
- 102010) Magnitude of the 2010 Gulf of Mexico oil leak. Science. doi: 10.1126/science.1195840.and (
- 112010) Gulf spill may far exceed official estimates. National Public Radio Morning Edition, May 14th. http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=126809525.(
- 12Bonn Agreement (2007) Bonn Agreement Aerial Surveillance Handbook. http://bit.ly/a8wJeq.
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- 142010) Gulf oil spill rate must be much higher than stated – 6 million gallons so far? Skytruth Blog, April 27th. http://blog.skytruth.org/2010/04/gulf-oil-spill-rate-must-be-much-higher.html.and (
- 15ASTM International (2006) Standard guide for visually estimating oil spill thickness on water. In ASTM Committee F20 on Hazardous Substances and Oil Spill Response. West Conshohocken, PA: ASTM International.
- 16BP (2009) Regional Oil Spill Response Plan – Gulf of Mexico. GoM EMS Mgmt Representative. UPS-US-GOM-HSE-DOC-00177-2. http://publicintelligence.net/bp-gulf-of-mexico-regional-oil-spill-response-plan/.
- 17National Commission, The amount and fate of the oil. National Commission on the BP Deepwater Oil Spill and Offshore Drilling, 2010. October 6, 2010.
- 18Markey staff, personal communication.
- 192010) Oral testimony. BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill and Offshore Drilling, Meeting 3, Day 1. http://www.oilspillcommission.gov/.(