Pundits: The confidence trick: Better confident than right?
Article first published online: 20 AUG 2013
© 2013 The Royal Statistical Society
Volume 10, Issue 4, pages 15–18, August 2013
How to Cite
Smith, B. and Wooten, J. (2013), Pundits: The confidence trick: Better confident than right?. Significance, 10: 15–18. doi: 10.1111/j.1740-9713.2013.00675.x
- Issue published online: 20 AUG 2013
- Article first published online: 20 AUG 2013
Media pundits are the supreme example of self-belief and confidence in their own opinions. Through TV, newspapers and blogs they tell us with sublime certainty what will happen. But are they right? And does it matter if they are wrong?Ben Smith and Jadrian Wooten ask what we demand from pundits – accuracy or confidence?