AUTHOR'S NOTE: This paper significantly expands upon, revises, and extends a preliminary analysis presented in The Forum: A Journal of Applied Research in Contemporary Politics 6, no. 4 (October 2008), http://www.bepress.com/forum.
The Exceptional Election of 2008: Performance, Values, and Crisis
Article first published online: 14 APR 2010
© 2010 Center for the Study of the Presidency
Presidential Studies Quarterly
Volume 40, Issue 2, pages 225–246, June 2010
How to Cite
CAMPBELL, J. E. (2010), The Exceptional Election of 2008: Performance, Values, and Crisis. Presidential Studies Quarterly, 40: 225–246. doi: 10.1111/j.1741-5705.2010.03772.x
- Issue published online: 14 APR 2010
- Article first published online: 14 APR 2010
This research examines influences on the 2008 presidential election. With an unpopular Republican president, an unpopular war, and a slumping economy, 2008 looked to be a good year for the Democrats. On the other hand, open seat elections historically have been close and less affected by retrospective considerations. Moreover, partisanship, ideological polarization, and contested nominations in both parties inclined the electorate to an even division. McCain's more centrist record and Obama's race also seemed to favor the Republicans. Taken together, these factors set the stage for a closely decided election. It was shaping up that way in the polls until the Wall Street meltdown hit in mid-September. It was the “game changer” that tipped the election to Obama.