Authors' note: An earlier version of this paper was presented at the annual meeting of the Peace Science Society in Atlanta, GA, November 2001. We thank Chad Atkinson, Nehemia Geva, Paul Kellstedt, Sungho Park, Brandon Prins, Philip Schrodt and Laron Williams for comments and assistance. Contributions of each author are equal; listing of authorship was determined by a coin flip. We also acknowledge the support of grants from Texas State University and the University of Canterbury.
The Domestic Determinants of Foreign Policy Behavior in Middle Eastern Enduring Rivals, 1948–1998
Article first published online: 4 FEB 2005
Foreign Policy Analysis
Volume 1, Issue 1, pages 121–141, March 2005
How to Cite
Sprecher, C. and DeRouen, K. (2005), The Domestic Determinants of Foreign Policy Behavior in Middle Eastern Enduring Rivals, 1948–1998. Foreign Policy Analysis, 1: 121–141. doi: 10.1111/j.1743-8594.2005.00006.x
- Issue published online: 4 FEB 2005
- Article first published online: 4 FEB 2005
Rivalry-related issues tend to dominate the foreign policy agenda of states in enduring rivalries. Thus, the enduring rivalry research program provides an important framework for foreign policy analysis. This paper probes the domestic elements of strategic interaction in the three main Middle Eastern rivalries: Israel–Egypt, Israel–Jordan, and Israel–Syria. The empirical tests probe whether the number of parties represented in Israel's cabinet and Arab and Israeli domestic unrest impact the propensity for these rivals to employ hostility against each other. We specify vector autoregression (VAR) models and negative binomial event count models with monthly levels of hostility as the dependent variables for the period 1948–1998. The results provide interesting foreign policy implications regarding the impact of Israeli domestic political structures on conflict dynamics in the Middle East. There is no evidence that the foreign policy behavior of Arab states becomes risk averse when Israeli leaders might need an external scapegoat. These findings are discussed in the context of other research on enduring rivalries and strategic interaction.