Author's note: Data and spreadsheets to accompany the original research report are available online at http://polisci.la.psu.edu/faculty/bennett/warduration.html. Research assistance was provided by Kyle Joyce and Faten Ghosn, The Pennsylvania State University.
1743-8594/asset/bannerforeground.gif?v=1&s=188b0ac3c806c54d068229a404bd6a5404b28abc)
Predicting the Length of the 2003 U.S.–Iraq War
Article first published online: 8 MAR 2006
DOI: 10.1111/j.1743-8594.2006.00022.x
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How to Cite
BENNETT, D. S. and STAM, A. C. (2006), Predicting the Length of the 2003 U.S.–Iraq War. Foreign Policy Analysis, 2: 101–116. doi: 10.1111/j.1743-8594.2006.00022.x
Publication History
- Issue published online: 8 MAR 2006
- Article first published online: 8 MAR 2006
- Abstract
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On April 1, 2003, we published a set of contingent predictions about the likely length of the U.S.–Iraq war that began on March 19, 2003. The predictions were made by applying the statistical model of war duration developed in Bennett and Stam (1996). In this article, we assess the accuracy of our (then) forecast, and then present new predictions from the model about the expected length of a punishment/guerrilla war in Iraq, a hypothetical war between the U.S. and Syria, and a hypothetical war between the U.S. and North Korea. Our forecast of the duration of a punishment/guerrilla war in Iraq is 83 months. Our earlier forecast and the new predictions suggest that our model of war duration is a useful tool for thinking about the politics of war duration as well as war initiation.
