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Assessment center ratings of 52 state law enforcement agency managers predicted both a contaminated promotions criterion and two uncontaminated ratings criteria, but they did significantly better in predicting the former. Criteria data were gathered two, four, and seven years after the assessment center, and a modest upward trend in validity coefficients was observed. Ratings by subordinates demonstrated promise as a near term predictor, outperforming the assessment center on uncontaminated criteria in the two- and four-year time frames. Last, regression analyses using Year 7 criteria revealed unique predictive power for both ratings by subordinates and assessment centers above and beyond that provided by supervisor ratings.

An earlier version of this paper was presented at the Academy of Management meeting, Anaheim, California, August 7-10, 1988.