The uncertainty of transition velocity estimates made for five armor ceramic materials was quantified by applying Bayesian hypothesis testing to the McCauley Wilantewicz method. Likelihood functions of the ceramic plasticity parameter and estimated transition velocity for each material were determined through analysis of load–hardness probability spaces. Parameters of these functions were analyzed to quantify variability in expected material performance. The applied statistical methodology enabled formation of probability of penetration curves that indicated how the certainty of interface defeat varied as a function of impact velocity. Qualitative and quantitative analysis of results increases the utility of the McCauley Wilantewicz method as a screening tool for ceramic materials by providing additional information regarding the variability of expected material performance. Information revealed by this statistical approach could potentially be harnessed to drive future material development by indicating microstructural states more likely to result in desirable material behavior.