Effects of Climate Change and Shifts in Forest Composition on Forest Net Primary Production

Authors

  • Jyh-Min Chiang,

    Corresponding author
    1. Department of Environmental and Plant Biology, Ohio University, Athens, Ohio 45701, USA
      *Author for correspondence.
      Tel +886 4 2359 0121 ext. 32408;
      Fax: +886 4 2359 0296;
      E-mail: <jyhmin@thu.edu.tw>.
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  • Louts R. Iverson,

    1. United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Northern Research Station, Delaware, Ohio 43015, USA
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  • Anantha Prasad,

    Corresponding author
      † Present address:
      Department of Life Science,
      Tunghai University,
      P.O. Box 851, No. 181, Sec. 3,
      Taichung-Kan Rd.,
      Taichung, 40704, Taiwan.
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  • Kim J. Brown

    1. Department of Environmental and Plant Biology, Ohio University, Athens, Ohio 45701, USA
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  • Supported by the DISTRIB/SHIFT grant from the USDA Forest Service Northern Research Station.

*Author for correspondence.
Tel +886 4 2359 0121 ext. 32408;
Fax: +886 4 2359 0296;
E-mail: <jyhmin@thu.edu.tw>.

Present address:
Department of Life Science,
Tunghai University,
P.O. Box 851, No. 181, Sec. 3,
Taichung-Kan Rd.,
Taichung, 40704, Taiwan.

Abstract

Forests are dynamic in both structure and species composition, and these dynamics are strongly influenced by climate. However, the net effects of future tree species composition on net primary production (NPP) are not well understood. The objective of this work was to model the potential range shifts of tree species (DISTRIB Model) and predict their impacts on NPP (PnET-II Model) that will be associated with alterations in species composition. We selected four 200 × 200 km areas in Wisconsin, Maine, Arkansas, and the Ohio-West Virginia area, representing focal areas of potential species range shifts. PnET-II model simulations were carried out assuming that all forests achieved steady state, of which the species compositions were predicted by DISTRIB model with no migration limitation. The total NPP under the current climate ranged from 552 to 908 g C/m2 per year. The effects of potential species redistributions on NPP were moderate (−12% to +8%) compared with the influence of future climatic changes (−60% to +25%). The direction and magnitude of climate change effects on NPP were largely dependent on the degree of warming and water balance. Thus, the magnitude of future climate change can affect the feedback system between the atmosphere and biosphere.

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