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Keywords:

  • aerial surveys;
  • Exxon Valdez oil spill;
  • generalized linear model;
  • harbor seal;
  • Phoca vitulina richardsi;
  • Poisson regression;
  • population monitoring;
  • Prince William Sound;
  • trend analysis

Abstract

We used aerial counts to monitor the trend in numbers of harbor seals, Phoca vitulina richardsi, in Prince William Sound, Alaska, following the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill. Repetitive counts were made at 25 haul-out sites during the annual molt period each year from 1990 through 1997. A generalized linear model indicated that time of day, date, and time relative to low tide significantly affected seal counts. When Poisson regression was used to adjust counts to a standardized set of survey conditions, results showed a highly significant decline of 4.6% per year. Unadjusted counts indicated a slight, but not statistically significant, decline in the number of seals. The number of harbor seals on the trend-count route in eastern and central PWS has been declining since at least 1984, with an overall population reduction of 63% through 1997.

Programs to monitor long-term changes in animal population sizes should account for factors that can cause short-term variations in indices of abundance. The inclusion of such factors as covariates in models can improve the accuracy of monitoring programs.