Culture and Probability Judgment

Abstract

Many, if not most, real-life decisions depend heavily on judgments, which are opinions as to what was, is, or will be the state of some relevant aspect of the world. Thus, for instance, physicians’ medical treatment decisions are often predicated on judgments as to the true cause of the patient’s symptoms, and jurors’ verdicts rest on their beliefs about whether the defendant actually committed the crime in question. Studies have shown that the kinds of judgments that inform people’s decisions can differ substantially and surprisingly according to the cultural backgrounds (e.g., Chinese versus Japanese versus American) of those rendering the judgments, particularly judgments expressed as probabilities (e.g., “There’s a 75% chance that that will happen”). This article reviews major cultural variations in key characteristics of probability judgments (e.g., their overconfidence) and why those differences exist. It also discusses the theoretical and practical implications of the findings, including for collaborations among decision makers from distinct cultures.