Hydrologist, U.S. Geological Survey, 5735 Kearny Villa Road, Suite O, San Diego, California 92123–1135.
THE SENSITWITY OF NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA STREAMFLOW TO CLIMATE CHANGE1
Version of Record online: 8 JUN 2007
JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association
Volume 30, Issue 5, pages 841–859, October 1994
How to Cite
Duell, L. F. W. (1994), THE SENSITWITY OF NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA STREAMFLOW TO CLIMATE CHANGE. JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 30: 841–859. doi: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.1994.tb03333.x
Paper No. 93111 of the Water Resources Bulletin. Discussions are open until June 1, 1995.
- Issue online: 8 JUN 2007
- Version of Record online: 8 JUN 2007
- surface water hydrology;
- regression analysis;
- statistical models;
- climate change;
- Sierra Nevada;
ABSTRACT: The sensitivity of streamflow to climate change was investigated in the American, Carson, and Truckee River Basins, California and Nevada. Nine gaging stations were used to represent streamflow in the basins. Annual models were developed by regressing 1961–1991 streamflow data on temperature and precipitation. Climate-change scenarios were used as inputs to the models to determine streamflow sensitivities. Climate-change scenarios were generated from historical time series by modifying mean temperatures by a range of +4°C to—4°C and total precipitation by a range of +25 percent to -25 percent. Results show that streamflow on the warmer, lower west side of the Sierra Nevada generally is more sensitive to temperature and precipitation changes than is streamflow on the colder, higher east side. A 2°C rise in temperature and a 25-percent decrease in precipitation results in stream-flow decreases of 56 percent on the American River and 25 percent on the Carson River. A 2°C decline in temperature and a 25-percent increase in precipitation results in streamflow increases of 102 percent on the American River and 22 percent on the Carson River.